I have found pieces from 3 incidents. It appears that the clip takes off first then the plate, the link itself opens up.
I have looked all over (but will do again) for any kind of marks where something could have hit, the backside of the driven clutch is the most likely part but no marks. Also no telltale signs on either sprocket that would point to misalignment beyond what we can eyeball.
If it's hitting the driven, you're not likely to see marks... you need to pull the belt so you can freely spin the wheel without much drag with the chain on.
LISTEN TO THE CHAIN CLOSELY! If it hits something you should be able to hear it and then track to its source of impact.
You should be able to hear the buzzing of the chain across the teeth and if it changes pitch you have an out if round sprocket or bent something.
The buzzing sound pitch is directly relative to chain tension just like drag is, and the pitch change signifies a change in tension/drag
There's 4 ways to fix it if it's catching the lip on the driven and each depends on the actual cause. It is also possible the transmission plate is bent or warped (rare as hell but I've seen it before)
1. Flip the master link over so the clip side is towards the engine
2. Adjust the engine positioning (if possible)
3. Add a washer between the pulley and sprocket, or if there's one between the sprocket and back plate move it to the front.
You will probably have to play with spacing to get the driver and driven lined up... anything under 98% perfect starts eating belts.
4. If the sprocket on the axle is movable, then look closely to see if the chain is dead center on the teeth, if it is not move the sprocket over to close the gap and center the chain... some carts would require the whole axle or the engine be moved instead due to a fixed sprocket